Norwegian industry group Pelagisk Forening says the North East Atlantic mackerel stock has been heavily underestimated for years. The group argues that low stock levels are not mainly due to overfishing, but to an unusually large mackerel population that later declined naturally.
The statement follows comments from the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research, which recently linked the fall in the stock partly to overfishing since 2010. Pelagisk Forening rejects that view. The group says updated figures from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea show the stock was fished sustainably from 2010 to 2021, with only limited overfishing from 2022 to 2025.
Stock estimate revised sharply higher.
According to the association, ICES estimated the mackerel spawning stock at 4.6 million tonnes in 2016. After changes to natural mortality models in 2025, the estimate was revised up to 11.3 million tonnes. The group also points to trawl surveys and RFID tagging studies that suggest a peak stock of around 20 million tonnes in 2016.
Pelagisk Forening says the large stock created stronger competition for food, lower fish condition and weaker recruitment. The group also claims that mackerel affects species such as herring, cod, wild salmon, and seabirds through competition and predation.
Criticism of survey methods
The association criticised several scientific methods used in stock assessments. It said egg surveys had limited value and argued that trawl surveys overstated catchability because mackerel often avoid nets or stay deeper in the water column.
It also said tagging studies showing larger stock levels were dismissed too easily.
Pelagisk Forening called for a fully independent review of mackerel management and stock assessment methods. The group said trust in fisheries management depends on accurate data, openness and a willingness to correct past mistakes.