The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has advised that there should be no cod fishing at all in 2026 in the North Sea, Skagerrak, eastern English Channel, and west of Scotland.
The stark warning was issued in the latest stock assessment, published on September 23, 2025.
Southern cod is at a critical low
The advice follows alarming data on the “southern substock,” where spawning biomass has remained below safe biological levels since 2017.
Even with zero fishing, ICES predicts a 44% chance the population will still be below the critical limit in 2027. The council highlights poor recruitment in recent years and a sharp downward revision of stock numbers for 2024 as key reasons for the warning.
Mixed stocks complicate the picture
Cod in the northern shelf waters are divided into three substocks – northwestern, southern, and Viking. While the northwestern and Viking groups are in better shape, they still suffer from high fishing pressure.
Because the three substocks mix in most seasons, ICES says protecting the weakest one requires halting fishing altogether.
In 2025, catches of cod across these areas totalled almost 29,000 tonnes, with an additional 6,000 tonnes discarded. ICES notes that under current conditions, any fishing activity risks pushing the southern stock closer to collapse.
Long history of warnings
The call for a zero catch is not unprecedented. ICES has repeatedly recommended drastic cuts over the past three decades, including full closures in the early 2000s.
While management measures helped stabilise the stock at times, the southern population has failed to recover. The 2025 advice is among the starkest yet, highlighting the fragility of cod despite decades of restrictions.
The EU, UK, and Norway will now decide whether to follow the advice in upcoming quota talks. If adopted, it would mark a significant blow to fleets across northern Europe, particularly in Denmark, Scotland, and Norway, which all depend on cod as a key target and bycatch species.