The EU fishing fleet is set for a marked profit rebound in 2025, after three tough years of falling margins, high fuel costs and weak prices.
New EU figures show gross profit is expected to rise by 26% in 2025, while operating profit could jump by 155%, as fuel prices ease and inflation slows.
The outlook follows a weak but stabilising 2023, when the fleet remained profitable but only just. Gross profit stood at just under EUR 1 billion, while operating profit fell to EUR 222 million, resulting in a 3.6% margin.
Revenues dropped by about 10% from 2022, hit by lower landings and falling first-sale prices.
Despite this, EU analysts say the worst is over. Projections for 2024 and 2025 point to a clear recovery, driven more by lower costs and better stock management than by higher catches.
Profits to rise as fuel and inflation ease
Fuel prices are the single most significant driver of the rebound. After peaking in 2022, average marine fuel prices fell to EUR 0.97 per litre in 2023. This cut average fuel costs per fishing day by 22%. Further easing is expected to support results in 2024 and 2025.
At the same time, fleet efficiency continues to improve. EU vessels now land just over 2 kg of fish per litre of fuel, up from a decade ago. Fuel use per vessel has fallen by around 15% since 2013, even as time spent at sea has increased.
For 2025, EU forecasts point to gross value added of about EUR 3.2 billion, up 5% from 2023. Gross profit is projected to reach around EUR 1.3 billion. In contrast, operating profit could rise to roughly EUR 567 million, bringing the sector close to its long-term average profitability.
Smaller fleet, higher output per worker
The EU fishing fleet continues to shrink, but productivity per vessel and per fisher is higher than before. In 2023, there were about 53,300 active vessels, down sharply from a decade earlier. Employment stood at just over 155,000, equivalent to approximately 74,000 full-time jobs.
Each full-time fisher generated about EUR 43,300 in value added in 2023. While this was slightly down on 2022, it remained well above 2013 levels. The trend reflects fewer vessels sharing the same resources, rather than rising catches.
Small-scale coastal vessels still account for about 77% of the fleet, but larger ships generate most of the revenue. Large-scale fleets account for around two-thirds of landing value and value added, and will benefit most from falling fuel prices in 2025.
Conservation linked to stronger 2025 outlook
EU analysts stress that the recovery is not just about costs. Better stock management is now clearly linked to stronger economic results. More EU fish stocks are being fished within safe biological limits than in the past, supporting higher vessel values over time.
Regions with improved stock status, such as parts of the Western Mediterranean and the Bay of Biscay, show a clear long-term link between lower fishing pressure and higher value added. Where stocks have recovered, profits tend to follow.
The EU Commission says this trend underpins the positive 2025 outlook. While quotas are expected to keep total landings slightly below historical highs, higher value per tonne and lower costs should lift margins.
After a difficult 2021–2023 period, the message for 2025 is cautious but precise: the EU fishing fleet is on a firmer economic footing, provided fuel prices remain low, and conservation rules are upheld.