Iceland’s capelin fishery is heading for a dramatic rebound after new scientific advice recommended an 81% increase in the national quota, opening the door to one of the most valuable fishing seasons in years.

Scientists at Iceland’s Marine and Freshwater Research Institute have recommended a total capelin quota of 358,000 tonnes for the next fishing season. If approved, Icelandic pelagic vessels would receive around 272,000 tonnes, up sharply from about 150,000 tonnes in the previous season.

The increase could push the fishery’s total landing value to between €427 million and €480 million if market prices remain stable.

Biggest capelin boost in years

The proposed quota marks one of the strongest recoveries for the Icelandic capelin fishery in recent years.

Capelin is one of Iceland’s most economically important pelagic species. A larger quota would provide a major boost for fishing companies, processors and coastal communities that depend on seasonal landings.

The scale of the increase has surprised many in the industry. The recommended allocation for Icelandic vessels alone is roughly 122,000 tonnes higher than last season.

Potential value almost doubles

Earlier this year, Gunnþór Ingvason, chief executive of Síldarvinnslan and chairman of the Federation of Icelandic Fishing Companies, estimated that the previous capelin season would generate between €233 million and €267 million in value.

Under the new quota proposal, the value of the fishery could almost double.

That would make the upcoming season one of the most lucrative capelin fisheries Iceland has seen for several years.

Final decision still pending

Despite the strong outlook, the quota is not yet final.

The research institute will update its advice after autumn surveys, which could lead to the estimate being revised either upward or downward.

That means the final quota and the potential economic windfall attached to it remain subject to further scientific assessment.