Northeast Atlantic mackerel has fallen below a critical safety limit, raising fears that one of the region’s most valuable fish stocks could struggle to reproduce.
ICES assessed in 2025 that the stock had dropped below Blim. That is the point where the population’s ability to rebuild may be damaged.
The warning follows more than a decade of failed management. Coastal States have argued over quota shares. At the same time, they have taken catches far above annual scientific advice.
Years of warnings ignored
Ashley Wilson, Officer for Science and International Fisheries at The Pew Charitable Trusts, says managers have failed to follow ICES catch advice since 2008.
She says the decline was not sudden. It was “foreseeable”, with signs including a decline in stock size and weaker recruitment of young fish.
The consequences are now spreading beyond science. Ecolabel certifications have been suspended. Some buyers have also paused mackerel sourcing in the region.
New strategy offers a way out
Managers have now asked ICES to test possible long-term management strategies for mackerel.
The work will use Management Strategy Evaluation. This means computer simulations will test risks, trade-offs and future outcomes.
The aim is to rebuild the stock, maintain stable catches, and protect mackerel’s place in the marine food web.
Wilson says the new plan must be strong enough to deal with real pressure. That includes continued overfishing, climate-driven changes and shifts in where the stock is found.
Coastal States face pressure to act
A coastal States mackerel meeting on 5 June was described as the next major chance to break the deadlock.
Wilson says a narrow plan focused only on stock size and stable catches would be progress. But she warns it may not be enough.
Her message is blunt. Managers cannot keep ignoring ICES advice. They must rebuild Northeast Atlantic mackerel and put the fishery on a safer path.