Norway’s pelagic seafood sector enters 2026 with record prices, record-low volumes and growing risk in key stocks, according to a new analysis from the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Export volumes in 2025 fell for the fourth year in a row to the lowest level since 1992, while prices reached all-time highs. Exports ended only slightly below the 2024 record at NOK 13.1 billion (about EUR 1.76 billion).
Volumes down, prices up
Total pelagic export volumes in 2025 were around 30% lower than in recent peak years. Higher prices offset most of the loss. The average export price hit a record, masking the scale of the volume decline and keeping revenues high.
Mackerel prices yet to hit consumers
Mackerel remained the most important species. Export volumes dropped 34% to the lowest level since 2009. At the same time, average prices rose by more than 50%.
Much of the fish was sold at prices unseen until recently. So far, these prices have reached end markets only to a limited extent. In 2026, demand will be tested. Consumption is expected to fall in some segments.
Stocks set the ceiling for 2026
Demand stayed strong in 2025 despite higher prices. The US was the only primary market with volume growth. South Korea became the most significant direct export market for mackerel.
Vietnam overtook China as the central processing hub. Looking ahead, weak stocks limit growth. Mackerel remains below critical levels. North Sea herring is close to the limit.
Blue whiting has fallen sharply. Norwegian spring-spawning herring is the bright spot, with a quota increase of 33%. A new four-party mackerel deal helps, but catches still exceed scientific advice.