Scientists at ICES have been very clear.

The North Atlantic mackerel stock has now fallen below all critical reference points. Their 2026 advice aims to give a 50% chance that the stock will recover above the absolute minimum safe level by 2027. That is a slim margin — not a comfortable recovery, just a coin-flip chance of avoiding the worst.

For real recovery to happen, two things need to go right simultaneously: mackerel fishing must be cut sharply, and young mackerel must recruit in good numbers.

The short-term outlook is highly uncertain because it depends heavily on the abundance of young fish, whose numbers rely on assumptions rather than measured data. In other words, even if countries do everything right, nature still has to cooperate.

What Is Actually Happening

The 2026 agreement between Norway, the UK, Iceland, and the Faroe Islands set a total catch of 299,010 tonnes — a 48% cut from 2025. That sounds big, but the agreed quota remains materially above what ICES advised, and the EU and Greenland are excluded entirely from the deal. So a significant share of the stock will still be fished outside any agreement.

The EU has warned that failing to establish a proper shared agreement could lead scientists to recommend zero catch in future years. That would be an industry-ending outcome.

Three Possible Futures

The situation could realistically go one of three ways:

  • Best case — Countries stick to reduced quotas, young mackerel return in good numbers, and the stock slowly rebuilds over 5–10 years. MSC certification could eventually be regained, and the fishery stabilises at a lower but sustainable level.
  • Middle case — Quotas are cut on paper but remain above scientific advice, as has happened repeatedly. The stock stays fragile, recovery is slow, and the industry faces continued price volatility and market access problems.
  • Worst case — Failing to follow scientific advice reduces the chance of recovery above safe limits, both in the short and long term. If recruitment remains poor and fishing remains too high, the stock could fall to a level where recovery takes a generation—or simply does not happen on any meaningful timescale.

The Hard Truth

The mackerel is not a fragile fish by nature. It is fast-growing and has recovered from pressure before. But recovery requires political will that has been largely absent for over a decade.

Coastal states have framed the 2026 agreement as sustainable within a broader management context — but from a scientific perspective, catches above advice increase the risk of delayed recovery.

The fish can come back. The question is whether the countries involved will let it.