ICES has advised a drastic cut in next year’s mackerel catch, recommending a quota of 174,357 tonnes for 2026 – down 70% from this year.
The advice has shocked the fishing industry, which has just completed a strong season with good catches and dense shoals.
Sharp Questions Raised
The cut is based on a revised scientific model that sets a new critical spawning stock level (Blim). Combined with gloomy estimates of future year classes, this has painted a darker picture than fishermen recognise.
“The industry has experienced one of the best seasons in years,” critics say, questioning whether the science matches reality.
“Science in the Dark”
Fiskebåt, the Norwegian vessel owners’ organisation, points to “massive lack of precision” in mackerel research over the past 15 years. Methods such as egg surveys, acoustic counts, and tagging studies have yielded inconsistent results, swinging between overestimations and underestimations.
“The result is a research history that leaves an impression of science in the dark,” Fiskebåt warns.
Call for Stronger Science
The organisation stresses that quota advice must be “updated, representative and transparent – not conservative assumptions that ignore the ocean reality.”
A meeting has been scheduled between the Ministry of Fisheries, ICES scientists, and industry bodies to examine the advice. “When the recommendation has such huge consequences for an entire sector, the professionalism must be unassailable,” Fiskebåt states.
Industry Awaits Answers
Fishermen fear that accepting the cut could hit jobs, exports and fleet economics. Many now look to the upcoming talks to see if ICES will revise its stance, as happened in 2019 when a sharp cut was later reversed.