The current mackerel crisis cannot be explained solely by overfishing, according to the Pelagic Association (Pelagisk Forening) in Norway. New assessments show that weak recruitment over many years is the main cause, while earlier stock estimates were too low.
ICES advised a mackerel quota of 174,357 tonnes for 2026. This is a 70 per cent cut from 2025. The advice reflects a sharp fall in the spawning stock. It is now estimated at 2.7 million tonnes, down from earlier peak levels.
The association says the public debate gives a misleading picture by pointing to overfishing as the single cause.
Weak recruitment is the key factor
According to the Pelagic Association, the decisive problem is very weak recruitment. For several years, the number of new year classes entering the stock has been small. This has reduced the stock over time.
Overfishing can only be linked to the last three years, the association states. It does not explain the long-term decline on its own.
Past stock estimates were too low
The association also points to major revisions of historical stock data. Earlier estimates of the spawning stock were later revised upwards using new models and data.
For example, the 2014 quota advice was based on a spawning stock of about 4.5 million tonnes. Much later, this was revised to around 13 million tonnes in retrospective analyses. This changes how past fishing pressure should be understood.
Calls for clearer public communication
The Pelagic Association agrees that the stock is under pressure and that action is needed. However, it warns that a one-sided focus on overfishing harms the industry’s reputation.
It calls on research bodies to communicate the updated knowledge clearly and correct media narratives that ignore weak recruitment and revised stock estimates.