Iceland’s Marine and Freshwater Research Institute has advised that total capelin catches for the 2025/2026 fishing year should not exceed 197,474 tonnes, following updated acoustic surveys published on 29 January 2026.
The advice is based on autumn and winter surveys, indicating that the spawning stock in 2026 exceeds the precautionary limit (Blim). No reference points for fishing mortality are defined for the stock.
Updated advice after winter surveys
The new figure replaces an earlier interim advice of 43,766 tonnes. The revision follows winter acoustic measurements, which were given a higher weight than autumn surveys.
The estimated spawning stock size in mid-January 2026 is around 601,600 tonnes. The institute states that a catch of 197,474 tonnes would meet the agreed harvest control rule, leaving at least 114,000 tonnes of spawning stock with a 95% probability.
Stock distribution creates uncertainty
Survey results from 19–25 January 2026 indicate that approximately 55% of the stock was east of Iceland, consistent with the usual spawning migration south and west. Around 45% was found northwest of the island.
Scientists say it is unclear whether this part of the stock will spawn west of Iceland, north of the island, or move east. Further research surveys are planned in February to clarify migration patterns.
Recommendation on fishing pattern
Due to this uncertainty, the institute advises that fishing should also take place north of Iceland, not only on the eastern grounds. This is intended to reduce the risk of losing stock components or spawning areas.
The advice was prepared jointly with the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources and follows the coastal states’ agreed harvest rule for capelin in the Iceland–East Greenland–Jan Mayen area.