Several of the North Atlantic’s most important pelagic fish stocks face sharp quota cuts in 2026, driven by years of weak recruitment and growing uncertainty around stock assessments.

New data presented to the Pelagisk Forening show that the situation is most acute for mackerel, where ICES recommended a quota reduction of around 70% compared with 2025.

At the same time, revised stock estimates suggest that mackerel biomass in previous years may have been significantly underestimated, complicating current management decisions.

Mackerel quota slashed amid weak recruitment

Mackerel remains under pressure after several years of very weak recruitment since 2014, which has reduced the spawning stock to below critical levels.

For 2026, the total allowable catch is set at 299,010 tonnes, down from 576,958 tonnes in 2025, according to figures presented by the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research.

Despite the cut, stock estimates remain disputed. Revised modelling has significantly increased historical biomass estimates, with some analyses suggesting the stock may have been far larger than previously recorded.

Blue whiting and herring show mixed outlook

Blue whiting quotas are also set to fall. ICES advises catches should not exceed 851,344 tonnes in 2026, a drop of around 40% from the previous year.

The decline reflects weak recruitment after 2021, leaving the stock dependent on a few strong year classes.

In contrast, Norwegian spring-spawning herring is expected to see a quota increase. The 2026 advice stands at 533,914 tonnes, up 33% from 2025.

Climate and ecosystem shifts add pressure

Researchers point to wider ecosystem changes as a key driver behind stock developments.

Sea temperatures in 2025 were between 0.5°C and 2.5°C above normal, continuing a long-term warming trend in the upper ocean layers.

At the same time, low levels of medium-sized zooplankton have been recorded in both the Barents Sea and Norwegian Sea, reducing food availability for pelagic species.

Cod stocks are also affected by these changes. Scientists highlight weak recruitment and reduced access to prey such as capelin, alongside increased predation from marine mammals.

Zero catch advice remains for capelin

Capelin in the Barents Sea remains under a full fishing ban. Both ICES and the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research maintain a zero-catch recommendation for 2026.

Overall, industry representatives warn that declining stocks across several species underline the need for stronger data, improved assessment methods and closer cooperation between scientists and fishers.

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