When Kristian Remøy-Bakke started his master’s thesis at NTNU in Ålesund, he expected falling quotas, global unrest, and higher costs to be the greatest threats to Norway’s offshore fishing fleet.
Instead, he discovered something more surprising: the fleet itself sees politics as the number one danger.
In his research, five out of ten identified threats were political. National policies and the tax system ranked highest. His conclusion: 2025 begins with squeezed profits, rising costs, and an unpredictable political climate.
A complex web of risks
The study showed remarkable agreement among industry and financial voices. Quota cuts on key species reduce earnings. Fuel and loan costs are climbing. On top of that, sudden political changes—like this summer’s CO₂ tax or quota redistribution from offshore to coastal fleets—have shaken trust in political stability.
Global turmoil adds to the pressure. Wars in the east and trade conflicts in the west create uncertainty for exports. Still, Remøy-Bakke points out that what keeps fleet owners awake at night is not Moscow or Washington, but decisions made in Oslo.
Some fleets are already in crisis.
His analysis of fleet segments revealed significant differences. Purse seine vessels (ringnot) have shifted from a “bubble economy” to nervousness.
Pelagic trawlers are on the brink of crisis. Whitefish and shrimp trawlers hover between stress and collapse. The conventional offshore fleet is already in an early crisis phase.
Today’s high mackerel prices may have temporarily lifted some groups, but deeper quota cuts could push them over the edge.
Strength through resilience and green shift.
Despite the turmoil, Remøy-Bakke stresses that the fleet has one significant advantage: experience. Fishing is a volatile business, and crews are trained to adapt. “When the only predictable thing is unpredictability, resilience itself becomes a strength,” he says.
Still, the future depends on embracing the green transition. Investments in greener operations are expensive, and shrinking margins make them hard to prioritise. Without stable conditions or political support, the shift risks stalling. Yet legitimacy, market access, and reputation will increasingly hinge on sustainability.
For Remøy-Bakke, the way forward is clear: stability, cooperation, and real green investment. “We move further when industry, politicians, and society work together,” he says.