The EU’s multiannual plan (MAP) for the Baltic Sea was meant to be a model of modern fisheries management. Introduced in 2016, it promised long-term sustainability, healthier fish populations and an ecosystem-based approach.
But almost a decade later, the results are disappointing. Cod and herring, once staples of the Baltic, are now critically depleted, and the region’s fishing future looks uncertain.
Stocks on the brink
Four of the seven leading fish stocks under the MAP are in crisis. Both eastern and western Baltic cod, along with west and central herring, have collapsed to levels far below safe limits.
In many cases, cutting fishing quotas has not been enough. Stocks remain stuck in “low productivity states” where they cannot recover, even with reduced catches.
The root causes are twofold. Decades of overfishing drained populations, and when scientists warned of zero-catch levels, politicians often ignored the advice. On top of this, warming seas, falling salinity, and growing oxygen dead zones have further reduced survival and spawning success.
Environmental pressures mounting
The Baltic is one of the fastest-warming seas in the world. Hypoxic “dead zones” now cover nearly a third of its seabed, squeezing cod into smaller, stressful habitats.
Herring face disrupted breeding cycles as warmer winters throw the timing of spawning out of sync with food availability. Eutrophication—caused by nutrient run-off from agriculture—continues to erode coastal spawning grounds.
Food web shifts make matters worse. With cod in freefall, sprat have boomed, feeding heavily on cod eggs and further blocking recovery. Seals and cormorants add local pressure through predation, while cod diets have shifted to less nutritious prey, weakening their condition.
A need for bold new management
Not all the news is grim. Gulf of Riga herring and Baltic sprat remain relatively stable, showing that stocks can survive with sustainable fishing and favourable conditions. But experts warn that recovery for cod and open-sea herring is unlikely in the short term—even under a fishing ban.
The report urges policymakers to rethink Baltic fisheries management. Suggested measures include stricter precautionary quotas, ecosystem-based and multi-species planning, new reference points for recovery, and expanded marine protected areas. Tackling eutrophication is seen as equally urgent as reducing fishing pressure.
Without decisive action, the Baltic risks losing much of its fishing heritage. With climate change and political inertia pulling in the wrong direction, the challenge is clear: adapt, or watch a centuries-old fishery fade away.