ICES has advised that catches of Norwegian spring-spawning herring should not exceed 533,914 tonnes in 2026, a significant increase from last year’s guidance of 401,794 tonnes.
The new advice reflects stronger incoming year classes from 2021 and 2022. Even so, scientists warn that the stock remains under pressure, with spawning biomass still below safe reference points.
Stock below safe trigger
The spawning stock is expected to reach 3 million tonnes in 2026, still below the precautionary trigger point of 3.18 million tonnes. While fishing pressure remains below target levels, ICES cautions that the population is not yet fully secure.
“The advice has gone up, but the stock is still vulnerable. Careful management is key,” the report notes.
Overshooting a long-running problem
Since 2013, actual catches have often exceeded scientific advice, as coastal states set unilateral quotas. ICES underlines that this behaviour increases the risk of the stock dropping below its critical limit, which would threaten future harvests.
The management plan agreed upon by the EU, UK, Norway, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and Russia is still considered precautionary. However, ICES stresses that failure to follow it could undo the gains made in recovery.
Stronger recruitment boosts outlook
The increase in advice is mainly due to strong recruitment from the 2021 and 2022 year classes. These younger fish are expected to support the fishery in the years to come.
Even so, ICES projects that spawning stock biomass will remain below the long-term trigger into 2027. The probability of the stock falling below the critical limit next year is estimated at 0.5%.