Greenland’s shrimp fishery is under growing pressure as falling stocks cut quotas and exports, while cod fishing is surging and now props up the wider seafood sector, according to a new analysis by Danmarks Nationalbank.
Shrimp remains the backbone of Greenland’s fisheries. Still, the biological advice for the stock fell from 110,000 tonnes in 2023 to 80,000 tonnes in 2025. Quotas were cut in line with that advice. As a result, the total seafood export value has dropped since peaking in 2023 at about EUR 740 million.
Shrimp decline hits export value
Shrimp prices and catch volumes have both weakened. The National Bank notes that the shrimp fishery is the primary driver of the decline in seafood export earnings since 2023. Shrimp and other seafood still make up the vast majority of Greenland’s goods exports.
The shrimp fishery remains MSC-certified, and quotas are based on biological advice. Catch volumes can vary year to year due to quota flexibility rules, but the underlying stock trend is down.
Cod rebound changes the balance
Cod tells a different story. The cod stock is increasing and has become a major predator on shrimp, thereby exerting pressure on shrimp stocks. At the same time, cod catches and exports are rising fast.
In the first ten months of 2025, the export value of cod products rose by 70% compared with the same period a year earlier. Volumes increased by 48%, and prices rose by 15%. The cod rebound was strong enough to lift total seafood export value in the second half of 2025, despite weak shrimp figures.
Halibut reforms under scrutiny
In coastal halibut fishing, Greenland introduced a voluntary system of individually transferable quotas in 2025. Approximately 80% of the coastal quota participated in the scheme. The remaining 20% was fished on a first-come, first-served basis and was almost entirely taken by mid-year.
The National Bank warns that raising quotas beyond biological advice risks undermining trust in the system and long-term sustainability.