The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has cut its advice for Northeast Atlantic mackerel catches in 2026 by 70%, warning that the stock is now below safe biological limits.
ICES recommends that total catches should not exceed 174,357 tonnes, down from more than 755,000 tonnes in 2025.
Stock in Crisis
According to the assessment, spawning stock biomass has fallen to levels below both the precautionary and limit reference points.
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Fishing pressure is also well above sustainable levels. ICES stresses that urgent cuts are needed to prevent further decline.
The new advice aims to secure a 50% chance of the spawning stock recovering above the biological limit by 2027. Without such reductions, scientists warn, recovery will be far less likely.
Years of Overfishing
ICES highlights that since 2010, unilateral quotas set by coastal states have exceeded scientific advice by an average of 39%. This persistent overshoot has driven the stock down. In 2024, total catches reached nearly 900,000 tonnes, significantly exceeding recommended levels.
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Scientists caution that ignoring the 2026 advice could lock the stock into long-term decline. Recruitment – the number of young fish entering the stock – has been weak in recent years, adding to the concern.
No Agreed Plan
Despite the economic importance of mackerel to fleets in the EU, the UK, Norway, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, and Greenland, there is still no international long-term management plan in place. ICES repeats that cooperation is vital to avoid collapse.
The advice comes as negotiations between coastal states are set to continue this autumn. Industry and governments now face a stark choice: heed the science or risk one of Europe’s most valuable fish stocks.